UFC 245
12-14-19
From Las Vegas, NV
Early Prelims available on UFC Fight Pass
Prelims available on ESPN2
Main Card available on ESPN+ ppv
By Dylan Hager
Can I start by saying what a freaking card?! UFC returns to ppv with UFC 245 Saturday night with one of the best fight cards of the year. Three title fights sit on top of the card, including the long awaited fight between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. The rest of the main card is rounded out by two legends, Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber, competing against two studs in the prime of their career, Marlon Moraes and Petr Yan. This is the type of card where you can go 13-0 or 0-13 on picks and still enjoy the card. Every fight is so hard to pick! It is going to be awesome. Let's pick!
UFC Welterweight Title: Kamaru Usman (15-1) (c) vs Colby Covington (15-1) (2)
What a main event! These fighters are so evenly matched. Both fighters are excellent wrestlers. Both fighters are 15-1 overall. Both fighters have 10 UFC victories. This should be an insane fight.
Usman comes in as the champ after dominating former champ Tyron Woodley in March. Kamaru has won his last fourteen fights. When it comes to this matchup, I think the champ might have the power edge on the feet. He has not finished a fight since September 2017, but he was dominant against Emil Meek, Damian Maia, RDA, and Woodley.
Colby Covington comes in on a seven fight win streak, including wins over Maia, RDA, and Robbie Lawler. The win over RDA in June 2018 was for an interim title. He was later stripped off the title with some controversy. Colby is hated by almost everybody, fans and fighters alike. I think Colby will have the volume advantage on the feet.
Both of these fighters are elite wrestling. I couldn't even say who has the advantage on the ground. I feel like Kamaru is stronger on the ground, but Colby does a better job of locking in submissions. Neither fighter has done much finishing in recent fights, on the ground or on the feet, and that has been the biggest criticism of both men in the cage. So who wins?! If the wrestling cancels out, who is better on the feet? Will Colby's volume or Kamaru's power be more effective? So many questions going in! I think the champ grinds out a decision victory. I just feel like Usman is a better fighter than Colby. Could Colby win this fight? Yes. Could Colby's antics get under Usman's skin and cause him to make a crucial mistake? Yes. I think Usman is to mature a fighter to let that happen though. I'm not sure if comes from grinding out Colby on the ground or beating him on the feet, but I think we will be hearing "And Still" at the end of the fight. Prediction: Kamaru Usman Decision
UFC Featherweight Title: Max Holloway (21-4) (c) vs Alexander Volkanovski (20-1) (1)
Another main event worthy fight here in the co-main spot. The blessed one himself, Max Holloway, puts his title on the line against Alexander the Great. This fight absolutely rules on paper!
Holloway won the interim title back in December 2016 with a win over Showtime Pettis, and he unified that with the main title with a win over Jose Aldo in June 2017. Max did lose to Dustin Poirier in a Lightweight fight back in April, but he has won fifteen straight Featherweight fights. Last time out, Max shut down Frankie Edgar for a unanimous decision win back in July.
Alexander Volkanovski comes into this fight a winner in his last seventeen fights. I believe his win over Chad Mendes last December really put him in the contender conversation, and his win over Jose Aldo in May solidified his spot at the very top of the 145lb division. Even though he is the shorter fighter, Alexander will actually have the reach advantage in this fight.
Max Holloway is such an elite level fighter. He has turned back everyone in the Featherweight division. Even with Alexander's reach, I'd give Max the advantage on the feet. I think Volkanovski is the better ground fighter, but Max has incredible take down defense. Alexander has a similar fighting style to Frankie and Max completely shut down Frankie. Will Alex learn from that fight and come at the champ with something much different? Both men have amazing gas tanks, so both fighters could easily go the full five round if necessary. I fully believe Alexander will be the UFC Featherweight champion one day, but I don't think it comes in Vegas this weekend. Max takes the win with either a late stoppage or a decision. Prediction: Max Holloway 5th Round TKO
UFC Women's Bantamweight Title: Amanda Nunes (18-4) (c) vs Germaine de Randamie (9-3) (1)
What's better than two title fights? THREE TITLE FIGHTS!! Two division champ, Amanda Nunes, puts up her 135lb title against former Featherweight champ Germaine de Randamie. This is the second time the two have fought. Amanda won the first fight via 1st round TKO back in November 2013. Both women have became completely different fighters since then.
Amanda Nunes isn't just the greatest female fighter of all time, she's one of the best MMA fighters ever. She's defeated Ronda Rousey, Holly Holm, Cris Cyborg, Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko, Sara McMann, and Shayna Baszler. Basically if you can think of a high level female fighter at 135lbs, Amanda has beaten her. The longer Amanda gets into her career, the easier she makes her fights look. Her last two wins have come via 1st Round KO/TKO against Cyborg and Holly respectfully.
GDR is no slouch though. She's won all five of her fights since losing to Amanda, but yes, that is only five fighters in a six year span. She defeated Holly Holm by unanimous, yet controversial, decision in February 2017 to become the inaugural Featherweight Champion, but she was stripped of the belt for never defending it. She won a unanimous decision over Raquel Pennington in her return fight in November 2018, and it only took her sixteen seconds to TKO Aspen Ladd this past July.
I simultaneously feel like there is nobody that can stop Amanda right now and that GDR has a great shot at pulling off the upset this weekend. Amanda is just a beast. She is patient and powerful and has great quickness. Plus she has a healthy confidence about her right now. However, GDR does have a reach advantage and is a great striker in her own right. Amanda has not had to spend much time in the clinch or on the ground in her last couple fights. I'd definitely give Germaine the advantage in the clinch, and the ground might be a toss up. This should be more of a stand up battle and not a ground fight. Everybody loses eventually. It happened to Ronda. I happened to Joanna. This could be the week it happens to Amanda, but I don't think it is. Kinda hate myself for picking all three champs to retain, but that just shows the level of greatness in these champs. Prediction: Amanda Nunes 2nd Round TKO
Marlon Moraes (22-6-1) (1) vs Jose Aldo (28-5) (3 FW)
No titles on the line, but come on, it is Jose freaking Aldo. The legend, and maybe greatest Featherweight of all time, is making the cut down to 135lbs. The #1 ranked Marlon Moraes is tasked with welcoming Aldo to Bantamweight. Moraes has won five of his last six, including highlight reel KO's of both Aljo Steerling and Jimmie Rivera. He was finished by Henry Cejudo in a title fight his last time out this past June. Aldo is all of a sudden 3-4 in his last seven fights after running off eighteen consecutive wins. The losses did come to McGregor, Max (twice), and Volkanovski, so it is not like he's losing to middle of the pack fighters.
The biggest question surrounding this fight has to be Aldo's weight cut. He successfully made the weight, but is that process going to drain him to where he can't take damage on fight night? Will his power and quickness translate down to Bantamweight or will his body be depleted. Of course, Marlon has the ability to quickly end the fight regardless of Aldo's health coming into the fight. A win for Jose would be a great feel good story and could lead to a career resurgence at 135lbs, but I have to go with Magic Marlon in this one. I think Moraes is too powerful and too good on the ground for Aldo at this point in his career. Plus Marlon has the advantage of fighting at his natural weight class. Prediction: Marlon Moraes 1st Round TKO
Petr Yan (13-1) (4) vs Urijah Faber (35-10) (12)
Another incredibly intriguing fight in the Bantamweight division. The up and coming Petr Yan takes on the UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber. Faber returned to action this past July with a 46 second TKO win over Ricky Simon. Before that, his last fight was a win over Brad Pickett in December 2016. Yan is undefeated in the UFC, and has won his last eight fights overall.
I don't expect this to be another under a minute TKO for Faber. Yan is a freaking beast. Yan has great pressure, good striking, and good ground skill. However, Faber is great on the ground, racking up 17 submission wins in his career. If this stays on the feet, I think Yan gets the job done, but if this fight spends much time on the ground, it could be a toss up. A win for either guy would go a long way into getting them a title shot against Cejudo. I think Faber can still compete with the best at 135lbs, but I like Yan to continue his hot streak. Prediction Petr Yan Decision
Eight prelim fights round out this loaded card. We'll do quick picks for them.
Geoff Neal (12-2) (14) vs Mike Perry (13-5) Prediction: Mike Perry
Ketlen Vieira (10-0) (2) vs Irene Aldana (11-5) (10) Prediction: Irene Aldana
Ian Heinisch (13-2) (10) vs Omari Akhmedov (19-4-1) Prediction: Ian Heinisch
Matt Brown (21-16) vs Ben Saunders (22-12-2) Prediction: Matt Brown
Chase Hooper (8-0-1) vs Daniel Teymur (7-3) Prediction: Chase Hooper
Brandon Moreno (15-5-1) (5) vs Kai Kara-France ( 20-7 (1)) (6) Prediction: Kai Kara-France
Jessica Eye (14-7 (1)) (2) vs Viviane Araujo (8-1) (5) Prediction: Viviane Araujo
Punahele Soriano (6-0) vs Oskar Piechota (11-2-1) Prediction: Punahele Soriano