UFC 249
5-9-20
From Jacksonville, FL
By Dylan Hager
2020 Picks Record:
Overall 49-45-1
Main Card 27-15
Prelim 22-30-1
FIGHTS ARE BACK!!! After a long couple of months, the UFC returns this weekend with UFC 249! We don't get to see Khabib vs Tony, but we do get an absolutely LOADED card! Ferguson vs Gaethje, Triple C vs Dom, Ngannou vs Rozenstruik are at the top of the card, but Cowboy vs Showtime and Uriah Hall vs Jacare are on the prelim cards! I cannot wait to watch, but now it's time to pick!
UFC Interim Lightweight Title: Tony Ferguson (25-3) (1,10 P4P) vs Justin Gaethje (21-2)(4)
With Corona season keeping Khabib from competing, Justin Gaethje is stepping up to fight Tony Ferguson. If Khabib vs Tony is the fight fans most want to see, then Tony vs Justin is second on the list. Both of these guys are absolute warriors, and there is almost no way this fight is anything short of spectacular.
Tony Ferguson comes into this weekend on a twelve fight win streak, yet somehow, he has never competed for the undisputed Lightweight Title. In October 2017, Tony defeated Kevin Lee to win an Interim Title, but he was later stripped due to injury. Since the victory over Lee, Ferguson stopped Showtime Pettis in October 2018 and Cowboy Cerrone last June. Tony is an absolute crazy man in the best way possible. He is a very dangerous, diverse striker. He has power and speed. He utilizes his elbows and knees just as well as he does his fist and feet. He's great on the ground, both with strikes and submissions on top and bottom, and he is insanely tough.
But so is Justin Gaethje. Gaethje has more post fight bonuses in the UFC (7) than he does fights (6). He his 4-2 in the Octagon. In his last three fights, he has finished James Vick, Edson Barboza, and Cowboy Cerrone all in the 1st Round. Gaethje has great power in his punches, and he might have the best leg kicks in the sport. He constantly moves forward, and he is willing to eat a few shots in order to land a big shot. He has a wrestling background, but he spends the vast majority of his fights on the feet.
I have absolutely no idea who is winning this fight. Both men aren't normal humans. Both men are insanely tough. Both men have dynamic striking. Both men have great forward pressure. I think the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Tony. Ferguson had been training to fight Khabib, and Justin is taking the fight on relatively short notice. Now, Gaethje is a completely different fighter from Khabib, but Tony still has the benefit of being in a longer training camp. Will Gaethje's leg kicks slow down Tony's movements? How could they not?! I think Tony has the better gas tank, but stamina doesn't matter if Gaethje finishes the fight early. I think both of these guys will land solid shots early, but I think Tony will start to take control in the third and finish Gaethje with a submission in the fourth. We did see Justin slow down in his fights with Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. If Tony can survive the early onslaught from Justin, I think Ferguson can lock on a choke and end the fight in the 4th Round. I love watching both guys, but I'm a HUGE fan of Gaethje. I'll be rooting for Justin, but I'm picking Tony. Pick: Tony Ferguson 4th Round Submission
UFC Bantamweight Title: Henry Cejudo (15-2) (C, 3 P4P) vs Dominick Cruz (22-2)
As much as I love the main event, I hate the co-main. Now don't get me wrong, this could be a GREAT fight, but I don't think it should be happening. Cruz lost the Bantamweight Title in December 2016 to Cody Garbrandt, and he hasn't fought since. He's not even ranked! Yes, Dom is a legend, but there is so much talent at 135lbs that deserve a shot at Cejudo. Aljo Sterling, Petr Yan, and Corey Sandhagen all deserve a shot before Cruz. But we're here to discuss the fight...
Cejudo is riding a five fight win streak. He won the Flyweight Title from Mighty Mouse in August 2018 by a split decision (I still think DJ won), defended the Flyweight Title against then Bantamweight Champ TJ Dillashaw in just over 30 seconds in January 2019, and defeated Marlon Moraes for the vacant Bantamweight Title in June 2019 to become a two division champ ( he has since been stripped of the Flyweight Title). He is an Olympic Gold Medalist, and he has only lost twice in his MMA career, once to Mighty Mouse and once to Joseph Benavidez.
Cruz is the best Bantamweight of all time, but he has been so injury prone the last several years. He's only lost twice in his career. He has major wins over Faber (twice), Mighty Mouse, Dillashaw, and Benavidez (twice). Dom has a very unique, effective striking style with lots of moving in and out. He has a decent ground game, but I think Cejudo will have the advantage on the ground.
We still don't know much about Cejudo at 135lbs. He started out rough against Moraes, but made a comeback and defeated Magic Marlon. Dom is definitely more used to competing at Bantamweight, but Cejudo has had almost a year to train and put on size. I think Cejudo will have the advantage on the ground. On the feet, I like Cejudo's power better, but Dom probably has the better overall striking game. It will be interesting to see if Dom can go the full five rounds after such a long layoff. I wouldn't be shocked if Henry finished the fight somewhere between rounds 2-4, but I think this goes the full five rounds and Cejudo retains the title. His wrestling will give him the advantage, and he'll be able to grind out the win. Pick: Henry Cejudo Decision
Francis Ngannou (14-3) (2) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0) (6)
Power, power, and more power. Two of the most powerful, if not the most powerful, fighters in the UFC meet this weekend. Francis is a former title challenger coming in with 1st Round finishes of Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez, and JDS in his last three fights. He looked unstoppable before challenging Stipe for the title, but he has seemed to find his old mojo following the stinker of a fight against Derrick Lewis.
Rozenstruik is 4-0 in the UFC. He has wins over Junior Albini, Allen Crowder (9 seconds), Andrei Arlovski (29 seconds), and Alistair Overeem. He was losing the Overeem before getting the KO with only 4 seconds remaining. Both of these guys have insane power. I don't see this fight lasting past the second round, probably not even past the first round. Francis is just a different level of monster. Rozenstruik will have a successful future in the UFC, but I think he'll be on his back looking at the lights on Saturday. Pick: Francis Ngannou 1st Round TKO
Jeremy Stephens (28-17 (1)) (7) vs Calvin Kattar (20-4) (9)
Excellent Featherweight fight on this ppv card. Jeremy Stephens and Calvin Kattar are both very dangerous strikers. Stephens is coming in on a bit of a rough stretch. He lost to Aldo and Zabit in back to back fights. He and Yair Rodriguez "fought" to a No Contest after a Yair eye-poke 15 seconds into the fight left Stephens unable to continue, and Yair won the rematch by decision last October. Kattar had a highlight reel KO of Ricardo Lamas last June. Last November, he lost a three round main event to Zabit. Kattar was building momentum in the third round probably would have won had the fight been a traditional five round main event.
I don't expect this fight to spend much time on the ground. Both of these guys are top notch strikers. Kattar has been building momentum, but Jeremy NEEDS this win. Stephens did weigh in several pounds overweight. The extra pounds could give him an extra power advantage, or it could slow him down. I'm rooting for Jeremy to get this win, but I think Kattar gets the job done late in the fight. Winner: Calvin Kattar 3rd Round TKO
Greg Hardy (5-2 (1)) vs Yorgan de Castro (6-0)
The ppv starts with two powerful heavyweights. The controversial former NFL player Greg Hardy makes his return against Yorgan de Castro. Hardy fought five times in 2019 and went 2-2 with a No Contest. He looked great against Dmitry Smolyakov and Juan Adams, but he was DQ'd in his debut fight for an illegal knee and his fight with Ben Sosoli was ruled a No Contest after Hardy used an inhaler between rounds. His last fight was a decision loss to Alexander Volkov, but many people (me included) didn't expect him to last near that long with the more experienced fighter. Yorgan de Castro is 6-0 in his pro career and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his debut against Justin Tafa last October. Both of these guys throw bombs. I don't think this one last long, and I like de Castro to get the win. Winner: Yorgan de Castro 1st Round TKO
The prelim card for UFC 249 is more loaded than some ESPN+ cards. Cowboy Cerrone and Showtime Pettis headline the ESPN prelims. Veteran Heavyweights Oleinik and Werdum meet in a BJJ fans dream. We've got the Karate Hottie and Thug Nasty making their returns. Plus Vicente Luque vs Niko Price in a Welterweight war! These fights probably deserve full breakdowns, but I'll just do quick picks for the prelims as always.
Donald Cerrone (36-14 (1)) (6 LW) vs Anthony Pettis (22-10) (15 WW) Pick: Donald Cerrone
Aleksei Oleinik (58-13-1) (12) vs Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1) Pick: Fabricio Werdum
Carla Esparza (15-6) (7) vs Michelle Waterson (17-7) (8) Pick: Michelle Waterson
Uriah Hall (15-9) (10) vs Ronaldo Souza (26-8 (1)) (14 LHW) Pick: Ronaldo Souza
Vicente Luque (17-7-1) (13) vs Niko Price (14-3 (1)) Pick: Vicente Luque
Bryce Mitchell (12-0) vs Charles Rosa (12-3) Pick: Bryce Mitchell
Ryan Spann (17-5) vs Sam Alvey (33-13 (1)) Pick: Ryan Spann